98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Nominations Announced: January 22, 2026
Awards Ceremony: March 15, 2026

Ninety-seven years of Oscar history, and somehow the Academy still finds new ways to break my heart. Last year's ceremony denied Demi Moore the crowning moment of her The Substance comeback while handing Best Picture to Anora, a perfectly fine film that I guarantee nobody has thought about since. The first Academy Awards ceremony took place on May 16, 1929, at the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel, with just 270 attendees and a fifteen-minute presentation. Wings took Best Picture. Emil Jannings won Best Actor. The whole thing cost five dollars to attend. Nearly a century later, it's become the most-watched non-sporting event in television history, a global phenomenon that still shapes careers and cements legacies. And yet here I am, not sure I'm ready to get hurt again.

This year's race lacks the variety that makes award season genuinely exciting. Looking across the precursors, you'd think maybe twenty movies came out in 2025. Nobody's taking risks. Where's the challenger? The scrappy indie that sneaks into the conversation? The performance that comes out of nowhere and scrambles everyone's predictions? The nominations feel locked before a single ballot is cast, and several of the "sure things" leave me scratching my head. Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another is perfectly fine, but a Supporting Actor nomination? There are at least four men delivering stronger work who aren't even in the conversation. The buzz on Wicked: For Good has cooled considerably, and I think we give Ariana Grande the year off to let Wunmi Mosaku's devastating work in Sinners claim the recognition it deserves.

And then there's The Testament of Ann Lee, a film being ignored on a truly striking scale. A gorgeous production made for just ten million dollars, it's exactly the kind of craft-driven, talent-forward filmmaking the Academy claims to champion. Daniel Blumberg's haunting songs deserve Original Song consideration, but instead we'll get Diane Warren's latest bland ballad from her own biopic as a guaranteed nominee. Warren has written some forgettable tunes that secured nominations over the years, but you'd think she'd deliver something undeniably good for a movie about her own life to triumphantly claim an Oscar in competition. Apparently not. The odds favor One Battle After Another to win it all, but that film has been far overhyped for my taste. Sinners represents where filmmaking is right now, but the Academy would never go for it. So even before nominations drop, I'm sticking with what I predicted months ago: Hamnet is the dark horse to win Best Picture while Paul Thomas Anderson takes the directing prize for One Battle After Another.

The one bright spot? Amy Madigan in Weapons. If she secures the nomination (still a hurdle, but I think she makes it), conventional wisdom says she'll win. And then the Demi comparisons will start. Our hopes will rise. The narrative will write itself: veteran actress, long overdue, delivering career-best work. Oscar night will arrive, and I'll sit there knowing exactly what's coming but still foolish enough to believe. The Academy has ninety-seven years of history. In that time, they've crowned unexpected champions (Moonlight over La La Land after that unforgettable envelope disaster), rewarded long-suffering legends (Peter O'Toole waited forty years for his honorary Oscar), and made choices that aged like milk (Crash over Brokeback Mountain still stings twenty years later). Whatever happens on March 15, it'll add another chapter to that complicated legacy. I just hope this year's chapter doesn't leave me heartbroken again.

🏆 Oscar Morning Update! 🏆

Well, the nominations are officially out — and lo and behold, The Academy did have a few surprises up its sleeves. The kind that shove out a couple "sure thing" nominees and make room for contenders who actually deserve the spotlight.

I have to start by saying how thrilled I was to see Kate Hudson recognized for Song Sung Blue (its only nomination, sadly). This comes 25 years after her Supporting Actress nod for Almost Famous, and it's easily her best work since — honestly, I'd argue it's even better. If that means it bumped out expected nominee Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another, I'm fine with that trade. Infiniti has plenty of time ahead of her to rack up nominations. Hudson's been waiting long enough.

And I've been disappointed to see Delroy Lindo shut out on Oscar nomination morning before… so today, I cheered when his name finally came up as part of Sinners' massive haul: 16 nominations. That's a new record, topping previous champs All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land, which each landed 14. Lindo joins fellow acting nominees Wunmi Mosaku (who surged into the Supporting Actress race over the last month) and Michael B. Jordan, cementing Sinners as one of the defining films of 2026.

I was also genuinely delighted to see Elle Fanning make it in for Sentimental Value. With her three co-stars showing up everywhere throughout the season (and all landing Oscar nominations of their own), it would've been a major omission if she'd been left behind. Fanning has had an excellent year between this and her strong work in Predator: Badlands, and this nomination feels like the cherry on top.

Of course, with the good comes the bad — and it was crushing to see The Testament of Ann Lee completely blanked. Especially from an Academy that embraced The Brutalist so loudly last year. With much of the same creative team involved, the shutout is baffling, and it really feels like something went wrong behind the scenes. Was it a release timing issue? Did its $70MM limited rollout fail to generate the right kind of buzz outside the industry bubble? Whatever happened, it's a shame. It's a terrific film, and Amanda Seyfried gave the performance of her career.

I'm also stunned that Bryce Dessner's score for Train Dreams wasn't acknowledged. It wasn't just part of the film — it was practically another character, and it's certainly stronger than a few of the nominees that did make the cut. Train Dreams still did well overall (Best Picture, Cinematography, Original Song, Adapted Screenplay), but I'm especially disappointed Joel Edgerton didn't land the Best Actor nomination he deserved. There are at least two nominees I would happily boot to make room for him.

A few more quick hits:

YAY for Amy Madigan — truly one of my favorite "oh thank GOD" nominations of the morning. Now the only question is… can she actually win? Because I would love to live in that timeline.

I also truly cannot believe Diane Warren received another nomination for another aggressively mid song. This is exactly why people treat this category like a running gag. And honestly? That slot should've been jettisoned for "Dream As One" from Avatar: Fire and Ash, co-written and performed by Miley Cyrus, which actually sounds like a song written for a movie and not a contractual obligation.

Speaking of Avatar: Fire and Ash — I'm still trying to process its Best Costume Design nomination. Random! Not unwelcome, just… random. Like the Academy reached into a hat, pulled out "Avatar," shrugged, and said, "Sure."

And while we're on the subject of confusion: how in the world was Wicked: For Good completely blanked? Just a year ago, the first film was a major awards contender. Even if the second chapter wasn't quite as huge of a critical hit, most of us assumed it would still land somewhere — a few technical nods, maybe a song, and possibly Ariana Grande repeating in Supporting Actress. Instead? Nothing. Which really does underline how fickle Hollywood can be. This year, nobody in the Wicked camp was flying high.

On the acting front, there are going to be snubs people will be buzzing about all day — some I'm mildly disappointed by, and some I'm not surprised by in the slightest. The biggest shock for me was Paul Mescal missing for Hamnet. He's such an essential part of that film, but his work isn't the "engine" of Jessie Buckley's performance, which may be why it was easy for voters to separate the two. Still, it stings.

Other notable misses: Jesse Plemons in Bugonia, Odessa A'Zion and Gwyneth Paltrow in Marty Supreme… the kind of performances that were "in the conversation" right up until the moment the conversation ended.

I'm also pleased to see Sirāt show up in a few categories, and I don't think I've ever cheered as loudly for a Live Action Short nomination — but once you see The Singers, you'll be cheering too. It's fantastic.

And finally: I'm sure everyone will be chattering about F1's surprise performance today, earning a Best Picture nod over Cannes Palme d'Or winner It Was Just an Accident. But this isn't like last year's race, where Anora arrived with a completely different kind of energy. It Was Just an Accident is complex, somber material — the kind of film that requires focused engagement, not casual admiration. It did land nominations for International Feature and Original Screenplay, but missed the Best Picture and Best Director recognition it seemed destined for. (Thankfully, that opened the door for Joachim Trier to make it in for Sentimental Value.)

Now that I've gotten my initial joy, shock, and mild outrage out of my system, let's dig into the full list — category by category — and see who's actually in the best position to win on Oscar night.

FILM

Best Picture

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Best Director